Why is speculation a game you cannot win? 

Near my house there’s a mountain called Lone Peak with a trail called Jacobs ladder that goes nearly straight up. The cool thing about it is the end is always in sight. Just 6 miles ahead and about 4,000 feet up. 

Upon nearing the top, you can see the exc...

President Trump recently unveiled a sweeping set of tariffs on exports from dozens of countries into the United States. Tariffs are duties imposed on imported goods by a government. They are intended to protect domestic industries, encourage local production, and generate tax revenue. In fact, tarif...

Tariffs are taxes levied by governments on imported goods. They aim to raise revenue, protect domestic industries, correct a trade deficit, impose political pressure on other states or deliver a combination of these goals.   - Investopedia

With the new administration, there will always be uncertain...

The market boomed again in 2024 for the second year in a row. 2022 seems like ages ago, the last bad year for the markets. I wrote then about how bad it was in aggregate because 2022 was the first year that both stocks and bonds were down double-digits (typically bonds rise when stocks fall).

In 20...

This is part II of “What We Are Doing in A Likely Low Future Returns.” You can read that here.

In part I of this memo, I detailed how current valuations suggest that future returns will be downright terrible. Goldman Sachs recently updated their projections, which suggest only 3% nominal returns pe...