This is part II of “What We Are Doing in A Likely Low Future Returns.” You can read that here.
In part I of this memo, I detailed how current valuations suggest that future returns will be downright terrible. Goldman Sachs recently updated their projections, which suggest only 3%...
I’ve been on this bandwagon for some time now but as the market zooms, we have to wonder what future returns will look like. The S&P 500 is on pace for its second straight 20%+ annual return. This has only occurred five times over the last 75 years, per Bloomberg.
20%+ returns in...
As we approach the upcoming presidential election, I want to address any concerns you may have about its potential impact on your investments.
I’ve received several emails asking what we are doing ahead of the November 5th election. The answer is simple: NOTHING!
There is...
A common question I receive is ‘what interest rate does the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) control’ and ‘how does it affect me?’ Since I’ve received the question a few times, here’s a memo!
The Fed controls the very shortest maturity rate called the ...
The First Rate Cut Since 2020
The Fed cut the interest rate they control (called Federal Funds) for the first time since March 2020 – during the panic of Covid. They started with a larger half a point cut. That was the right call in my opinion as inflation is down to 2.6% year-over-year and...
The S&P 500 Index hit its last all-time high on July 16th at 5,669. Since then, the market (as of this writing) is down about 8%. However, some stocks, namely Mega cap tech stocks, are down far more. The SPDR Technology Index ETF (XLK) is down 16% since its July 10th high.
What is...
So far it has been a good year with the S&P 500 up 15.3% in the first half.1 However, there are some dangers lurking beneath the surface, which we will discuss. We will also dive into the interest rate environment and inflation and how it forms the basis for managing portfolios.
One...
The short answer is: that’s not what you should be focusing on. Instead, investors should be asking, “at today’s valuation, is it a good time to invest?”
Investing at all-time highs may seem scary for investors. We are told to buy low and sell high and buying at all...
Financial advising is in need of a good shift in thinking. Most advisors still operate like it’s the late 20th century, baby sitting assets, and for retirement income, selling some of those assets each month to cover the clients’ monthly expenses.
One of the things we need to help our...
One of the largest issues this election cycle will be the deficit. In my opinion, it hasn’t received nearly enough attention even though it has received a good amount. The fiscal situation in this country trumps (pun intended) anything to do with the border or democracy.
The problem comes...
Looking back at 2023, one thing we can reflect on is the winding road we navigated along the way. The last several years we’ve had alternating results and abnormal returns. In 2020, the S&P fell more than 33% before recovering before year’s end to finish up 18%. In 2021, the...
One of the largest competitors to the stock and bond markets is real estate. In the United States alone, real estate is worth $47 trillion in June 2023, according to Benoit Properties.1 Owning real estate has been the cornerstone of the American Dream since the Pilgrims landed four hundred years...
