Advisors
Client Memo: Future Returns Look Downright Abysmal. What Do We Do About It? financial insights interest rates market analysis s&p 500 stocks tech stocks u.s. economy Nov 04, 2024

I’ve been on this bandwagon for some time now but as the market zooms, we have to wonder what future returns will look like. The S&P 500 is on pace for its second straight 20%+ annual return. This has only occurred five times over the last 75 years, per Bloomberg.

 

20%+ returns in...

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How Does The Fed Rate Cut Affect Me? financial insights interest rates investing market analysis u.s. economy Oct 03, 2024

A common question I receive is ‘what interest rate does the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) control’ and ‘how does it affect me?’ Since I’ve received the question a few times, here’s a memo!

The Fed controls the very shortest maturity rate called the ...

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Whatā€™s Next Now That the Cutting Cycle Has Begun? financial insights interest rates investing market analysis u.s. economy Sep 24, 2024
The First Rate Cut Since 2020

The Fed cut the interest rate they control (called Federal Funds) for the first time since March 2020 – during the panic of Covid. They started with a larger half a point cut. That was the right call in my opinion as inflation is down to 2.6% year-over-year and...

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The Long Unwinding Road currency trade effects financial insights market analysis market trends s&p 500 tech stocks u.s. economy yen carry trade Aug 05, 2024

The S&P 500 Index hit its last all-time high on July 16th at 5,669. Since then, the market (as of this writing) is down about 8%. However, some stocks, namely Mega cap tech stocks, are down far more. The SPDR Technology Index ETF (XLK) is down 16% since its July 10th high.  

What is...

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Mid-Year Review and Outlook financial insights market analysis market trends tech stocks Jul 24, 2024

So far it has been a good year with the S&P 500 up 15.3% in the first half.1 However, there are some dangers lurking beneath the surface, which we will discuss. We will also dive into the interest rate environment and inflation and how it forms the basis for managing portfolios.

One...

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Should You Buy Stocks When They are at All-Time Highs? financial insights market analysis s&p 500 stocks May 03, 2024

The short answer is: that’s not what you should be focusing on. Instead, investors should be asking, “at today’s valuation, is it a good time to invest?” 

Investing at all-time highs may seem scary for investors. We are told to buy low and sell high and buying at all...

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Getting the Fiscal House in Order interest rates market analysis u.s. economy Mar 04, 2024

One of the largest issues this election cycle will be the deficit. In my opinion, it hasn’t received nearly enough attention even though it has received a good amount. The fiscal situation in this country trumps (pun intended) anything to do with the border or democracy.

The problem comes...

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Always Expect the Unexpected financial planning investing market analysis s&p 500 tech stocks Jan 25, 2024

Looking back at 2023, one thing we can reflect on is the winding road we navigated along the way. The last several years we’ve had alternating results and abnormal returns. In 2020, the S&P fell more than 33% before recovering before year’s end to finish up 18%. In 2021, the...

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Sometimes the Higher Yield isn't the Best Yield financial insights investing market analysis u.s. economy Dec 28, 2023

“Throughout history, whenever most investors believed the worst about a particular asset class, such has often been the right time to start buying. As we have often discussed, psychological behaviors account for as much as 50% of the reasons investors consistently underperform the markets...

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Bonds Tend to Shine Following Last Fed Rate Hike financial insights investing market analysis market trends u.s. economy Nov 03, 2023

The Fed kept rates at current levels at their meeting this week, but whether they are done with their tightening or not is yet to be determined. If there is one more hike (or even two), it doesn’t really matter at this point.

Monetary policy is now extremely restrictive and while it takes...

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Fitch States the Obvious: Implications for the US Debt Being Downgraded financial insights interest rates market analysis u.s. economy Aug 04, 2023

Time to worry. Just kidding. 

On August 2nd, Fitch Ratings, one of the nationally recognized statistical ratings organizations, or NRSRO, downgraded the U.S. credit rating one notch to the second highest rating. Fitch is one of the ten approved by the SEC to provide an assessment of the...

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Whatever It Takes financial insights interest rates investing market analysis u.s. economy Sep 22, 2022

‘‘Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the EUR. And believe me,it will be enough.” 

Mario Draghi, July 2012 

''We will keep at it until inflation is down to 2%. And our monetary policy tightening will be enough.It will be enoughto...

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