Why is speculation a game you cannot win?
Near my house there’s a mountain called Lone Peak with a trail called Jacobs ladder that goes nearly straight up. The cool thing about it is the end is always in sight. Just 6 miles ahead and about 4,000 feet up.
Upon nearing the top, you can see the exc...
At the start of 2020, markets were at all-time highs and, to borrow a phrase from the LEGO Movie’s annoying song, “everything was awesome.” At the time, there were only faint news reports of an outbreak in China causing a stir. And then, as these things tend to go, it was everywhere -all at once.
B...
President Trump recently unveiled a sweeping set of tariffs on exports from dozens of countries into the United States. Tariffs are duties imposed on imported goods by a government. They are intended to protect domestic industries, encourage local production, and generate tax revenue. In fact, tarif...
The market boomed again in 2024 for the second year in a row. 2022 seems like ages ago, the last bad year for the markets. I wrote then about how bad it was in aggregate because 2022 was the first year that both stocks and bonds were down double-digits (typically bonds rise when stocks fall).
In 20...
I’ve been on this bandwagon for some time now but as the market zooms, we have to wonder what future returns will look like. The S&P 500 is on pace for its second straight 20%+ annual return. This has only occurred five times over the last 75 years, per Bloomberg.
20%+ returns in the market in a...
As we approach the upcoming presidential election, I want to address any concerns you may have about its potential impact on your investments.
I’ve received several emails asking what we are doing ahead of the November 5th election. The answer is simple: NOTHING!
There is a general rule of thum...
A common question I receive is ‘what interest rate does the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) control’ and ‘how does it affect me?’ Since I’ve received the question a few times, here’s a memo!
The Fed controls the very shortest maturity rate called the Federal Funds rate. It is the interest rate that ba...
The First Rate Cut Since 2020
The Fed cut the interest rate they control (called Federal Funds) for the first time since March 2020 – during the panic of Covid. They started with a larger half a point cut. That was the right call in my opinion as inflation is down to 2.6% year-over-year and unemplo...
The S&P 500 Index hit its last all-time high on July 16th at 5,669. Since then, the market (as of this writing) is down about 8%. However, some stocks, namely Mega cap tech stocks, are down far more. The SPDR Technology Index ETF (XLK) is down 16% since its July 10th high.
What is driving this mo...
So far it has been a good year with the S&P 500 up 15.3% in the first half.1 However, there are some dangers lurking beneath the surface, which we will discuss. We will also dive into the interest rate environment and inflation and how it forms the basis for managing portfolios.
One thing I’m watch...
The short answer is: that’s not what you should be focusing on. Instead, investors should be asking, “at today’s valuation, is it a good time to invest?”
Investing at all-time highs may seem scary for investors. We are told to buy low and sell high and buying at all time highs feels like the oppos...
“We’re aware of the risk that we would hang on too long. We’re very focused on not making that mistake.”
- Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman
Less than two months ago, I wrote to clients that the pivot was coming over the next year. Little did I know it was coming in a couple of weeks as the market q...
