Why is speculation a game you cannot win? 

Near my house there’s a mountain called Lone Peak with a trail called Jacobs ladder that goes nearly straight up. The cool thing about it is the end is always in sight. Just 6 miles ahead and about 4,000 feet up. 

Upon nearing the top, you can see the exc...

President Trump recently unveiled a sweeping set of tariffs on exports from dozens of countries into the United States. Tariffs are duties imposed on imported goods by a government. They are intended to protect domestic industries, encourage local production, and generate tax revenue. In fact, tarif...

The market boomed again in 2024 for the second year in a row. 2022 seems like ages ago, the last bad year for the markets. I wrote then about how bad it was in aggregate because 2022 was the first year that both stocks and bonds were down double-digits (typically bonds rise when stocks fall).

In 20...

The S&P 500 Index hit its last all-time high on July 16th at 5,669. Since then, the market (as of this writing) is down about 8%. However, some stocks, namely Mega cap tech stocks, are down far more. The SPDR Technology Index ETF (XLK) is down 16% since its July 10th high.  

What is driving this mo...

So far it has been a good year with the S&P 500 up 15.3% in the first half.¹ However, there are some dangers lurking beneath the surface, which we will discuss. We will also dive into the interest rate environment and inflation and how it forms the basis for managing portfolios.

One thing I’m watch...

The Fed kept rates at current levels at their meeting this week, but whether they are done with their tightening or not is yet to be determined. If there is one more hike (or even two), it doesn’t really matter at this point.

Monetary policy is now extremely restrictive and while it takes time for ...